Tenth District Energy Activity Keeps Climbing: What $64 Oil Means for Southwest Oklahoma

Energy activity across the Tenth District grew again in the third quarter of 2026, according to the latest survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Oklahoma City branch. The drilling and business activity index rose to 20 from 18 in the second quarter, and nearly every major measure came in positive. Year-over-year drilling activity reached 21, its highest reading since late 2022, while capital expenditures jumped from 15 to 37. For communities tied to the oil field, that translates to steadier work and continued investment in equipment and operations.

The numbers behind the growth are worth understanding. Firms told the Fed they need oil at roughly $64 per barrel to drill profitably, and about $85 per barrel for a substantial increase in drilling. Natural gas needs to reach $3.59 per million Btu just to break even, with $4.70 required for a major expansion. Perhaps the most interesting finding: half of the firms surveyed expect oil prices to be lower in six months, yet the expected drilling activity index still rose from 12 to 18. Companies appear to be planning for the long haul rather than reacting to short-term price swings.

There’s also a staffing story here. A plurality of firms, 38 percent, pointed to technology and automation as the top factor enabling production gains without adding workers. That’s a double-edged headline for job seekers in energy country. And industry voices acknowledge plenty of uncertainty ahead, from global conflict to permitting delays and weather disruptions, though one firm said it believes prices will stay in a window that supports drilling through 2027. What’s your read on the energy outlook for southwest Oklahoma? Let us know in the comments.