Incumbents Win Big in Oklahoma Primary; August Runoffs Set

When more than 600,000 Oklahomans cast ballots in Tuesday’s primary election, they sent a clear message: the establishment still holds power—at least for now.

Incumbents dominated the Republican primary races, with 34 of 37 lawmakers facing challengers securing their nominations or winning outright. The few who stumbled did so spectacularly. State Treasurer Todd Russ, facing scrutiny over ties to a lobbyist who received a state contract and his use of a Clinton state office as a commuting hub, lost by more than 20 points to State Auditor and Inspector Cindy Byrd. And State Sen. Dusty Deevers, a pastor from Elgin who had championed a statewide pornography ban and pushed for murder charges related to abortion, fell short of 30 percent of the vote in his bid for re-election in Senate District 32.

The gubernatorial race emerging from the primary underscores just how much endorsements and personal resources matter in modern politics. Attorney General Gentner Drummond will face former state senator Mike Mazzei in an August 25 runoff. Mazzei, backed by President Donald Trump’s endorsement and buoyed by nearly $11 million in personal loans, overcame early polling deficits to advance. Drummond leaned on endorsements from the Oklahoma Fraternal Order of Police and Professional Firefighters of Oklahoma to stay competitive. Either winner will almost certainly become governor—Democrats haven’t won a statewide race in Oklahoma in two decades.

The real rejection came on the ballot measure front. State Question 832, which would have gradually raised Oklahoma’s minimum wage to $15 by 2029, lost decisively. Nearly $4.5 million flooded into the state question debate, with more than half coming from People for Opportunity, a dark money group opposing the initiative. Gov. Kevin Stitt, House Speaker Kyle Hilbert, Senate President Pro Tempore Lonnie Paxton, and more than 100 Republican lawmakers lined up against it—and voters sided with them.

One genuinely competitive congressional race stands out: Democrat Jena Nelson defeated Trey Martin in Oklahoma’s Fifth Congressional District, despite Martin’s endorsement from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders. The race grabbed national attention, and Nelson’s victory sets up a compelling rematch with Republican Stephanie Bice come November—a seat that produced a Democratic upset just eight years ago.

August’s runoffs will narrow the field further. Republican races for superintendent, insurance commissioner, and labor commissioner remain unsettled. And in the First Congressional District, Trump-endorsed Jackson Lahmeyer will face Mark Tedford in an August 25 showdown—though Lahmeyer’s momentum took a hit when an online tabloid published allegations of a sexting controversy just two days before the primary.

The primary results suggest that party backing and institutional weight still matter enormously. But the August runoffs—and November’s general election—will test whether that establishment advantage holds.